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- LineStar® Hat Trick 02/18 | Quick Tip on an Advanced Sorter for NHL
LineStar® Hat Trick 02/18 | Quick Tip on an Advanced Sorter for NHL
Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.
Two more days until NBA comes back. If you've resisted playing NHL DFS until now, I've compiled a list of past newsletters that give my thoughts on good ways to approach NHL DFS if you're brand new.
That will give you a good head start in what to look for and basic NHL DFS strategy.
For today, I want to go over one of my favorite Advanced Sorters - FPPG to Line.
For me, this is one of the best ways to show matchups in NHL. I don't know of any other tool that offers this. I'll give you an example of how I might use this for tonight.
Winnipeg is going to get a lot of looks from people tonight. But if you sort by FPPG to Line, and then filter by Team to see WPG, you'll get this: (I filter to only see Centers to make it a little easier to read)
What this means is that LA gives up almost as many PPG to the opposing 3rd line than they do to the opposing 1st line. If you look at these lines in the stack finder, you'll see that WPG3 comes in at a huge discount to WPG2.
Does that mean you should slam WPG3 into your lineups? Probably not. They don't have a very high ceiling. However, if you're looking to risk it for the biscuit tonight and want a top line stack like BUF1, but want to pair it with a cheaper line stack, WPG3 might make a good pair.
Hopefully that helps and makes sense. If it doesn't or you have more questions, let me know in LineStar Chat
LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Tonight's Targets
First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):
W and L: Wins and Losses
CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes
HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.
SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.
SOT: Percentage of shots on target .
Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.
SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes
GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.
ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.
I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.
Now let's dig into this slate.
Goaltenders
Tristan Jarry - PIT (DK: $7800, FD: $8900)
Jarry was popping in some early builds for me, and I think I'm ok with this. Risky? Sure, but Jarry has played well over the past month with a 2.00 GAA and .938 Save%. He'll certainly face a lot of shots, so I see a lot of upside if he can keep the biscuit out of the basket.
Centers
Jack Eichel - BUF (DK: $8300, FD: $8200)
If you want to spend up, I like Eichel the most out of this bunch tonight. He has a high shot volume and Ottawa is among the worst on the slate in shots allowed and high danger shot attempts allowed.
Wingers
Kyle Palmieri -NJD (DK: $5500, FD: $6600)
Connor and Laine should be high owned and I wouldn't fault you for having either in your lineup, but if you're looking for that late night hammer, I think Palmieri is a good option tonight.
Defensemen
Kris Letang - PIT (DK: $6800, FD: $7000)
I can't ever pick the right PIT line to stack to save myself. So instead, I'm going to go with Letang and hope I can luckbox my way to a few assists.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Bottom of the Barrel
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
Erik Haula: CAR - C (DK: $4400, FD: $3800)
Jared McCann: PIT - D (DK: $4400, FD: $4300)
Travis Sanheim: PHI - D (DK: $4100, FD: $3800)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
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