LineStar® Hat Trick 02/17 | Afternoon Hockey

February 17, 2020

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick. With Presidents Day today, we have afternoon hockey. Because of that, I'm hustling to get some info to you on today's slate. In case you missed it, I compiled a list of past newsletters that give my thoughts on good ways to approach NHL DFS if you're brand new.

That will give you a good head start in what to look for and basic NHL DFS strategy.

Hopefully that helps and makes sense. If it doesn't or you have more questions, let me know in LineStar Chat

LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

  • ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Andrei Vasilevskiy - TBL (DK: $7500, FD: $9300)

NOTE: From what I saw at the time of this writing, only Holtby was confirmed as starting. Also, I had Grubauer projected, but it will probably be Francouz for Colorado today. Keep an eye on Twitter or chat before lock to confirm your goalie is starting.

This is risky, but Vasilevskiy is undefeated in regulation this season and has a solid .938 Save% and 2.00 GAA over the past month. I really don't think there's truly any "safe" goalies tonight, so instead, I'm going to play the most talented on the slate, which I believe is Vasi.

Centers

William Karlsson - VGK (DK: $5000, FD: $5100)

Note: Backlund has been battling cold/flu and may not play tonight.

There are a lot of good options at C where you don't have to spend up, and I like Karlsson the most of that group. I've said it before, I think Holtby is washed. Plus I really like that line that Karlsson is skating on. So if you can't fit Stone or Pacioretty in your lineup, Karlsson is a great way to get exposure to that line.

Wingers

Alex Ovechkin -WAS (DK: $8500, FD: $9000)

I'm going off the rails on this one a little. Ovi isn't in my list of top 5 W for today, but I'm going to continue to chase him until he scores his 700th career goal (he's two goals away).

Defensemen

Jakob Chychrun - ARI (DK: $5100, FD: $3800)

Jakob Chychrun is a little expensive on DraftKings, but he's a little underpriced on FanDuel today. He's typically one of my favorite value plays because of shot volume and minutes.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Derek Grant: ANH - C (DK: $3600, FD: $3300)

Kevin Labanc: SJ - D (DK: $4500, FD: $4700)

Erik Cernak: TBL - D (DK: $3600, FD: $3800)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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