LineStar® Hat Trick 02/14 | Making Good Lineups

February 14, 2020

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick. With the NBA All Star Break, I know there's a lot of you trying out NHL DFS.

To start, I'd recommend reading these previous newsletters:

That will give you a good head start in what to look for and basic NHL DFS strategy.

Making Good Lineups

I'm writing this to the people new to NHL DFS, but hoping that some of you that know NHL can take something away from this. What I want to try to explain is if you're creating an NHL lineup - whether you're hand-building or using the lineup builder, how do you know you have a solid lineup?

The first thing to remember is that NHL DFS is a lot like MLB DFS. Top-tier players can, and will, get a zero or a handful of points while some scrub will go off and get 30 points. I've said this before, NHL projections mean almost nothing. I don't care if Brent Burns is projected at 5 points, 15 points, or 25 points (because honestly, his range of outcomes is 5-25 points any given night).

When I look at a lineup, there are several rules that I want it to follow, and this is from studying winning lineups across various slates.

  • The majority of my players should come from the 1st line or 2nd line.

  • 3rd and 4th line players are ok IF they are on PP1 or PP2 OR get 15+ minutes a game AND 2+ SOG a game.

  • No more than 3 players total from the 3rd or 4th line. (On larger slates, no more than 2 players total from the 3rd or 4th line.)

  • I want as many skaters as possible in my lineup to be on PP1 or PP2. 4 or more is good. 6-8 is optimal.

Now that's the basic starting point. From there - my strategy depends on how many lineups I'm playing. Most of y'all know that I play a ton of volume. If you're doing 20+ lineups, I'd push you more towards line stacks (3 players on the same line or PP unit). If you're playing a handful of lineups, I'd push towards mini stacks or organic stacks. By "organic" I mean they're unintentional stacks. You might have 2 Pittsburgh players just because you happened to like both players, not because you're intentionally trying to stack.

Let me give you an example. Here's a lineup I built with my settings in the lineup builder:

I'm NOT telling you to play this lineup (I won't be playing it), but for me, I don't hate this lineup. It follows all my rules. For me, and this is just my personal play style, I would want to have a little more correlation and take a bigger stand with stacking. For example, I'd prefer to try to fit in Laine's line mates (Scheifele and Connor).

Here's an example of something that would look more like what I'm playing tonight:

This is more of an example of a 4-3 stacked lineup (4 WPG - 3 CAR). It's risky. If CAR or WPG only scores 1-2 goals, this lineup doesn't cash. CAR3, to me, isn't a great stack for tonight. The three players on that line are averaging 1.4-1.6 shots/game. That's not great. Of course it's hockey and anything could happen, but it's probably a little too wild for me. In other words, if I'm running 150 lineups, I might take a ride on it, but 20 lineups or less, I'd probably keep looking.

Hopefully that helps and makes sense. If it doesn't or you have more questions, let me know in LineStar Chat

LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

  • ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Elvis Merzlikins - CLS (DK: $8100, FD: $8600)

Merzlikins was popping in some early builds for me, and I think I'm good with that. He's not yet confirmed for today, but is expected to start tonight. Merzlikins has been one of the best goalies in the league over the last month with a 1.50 GAA and .949 Save%. He has a tougher matchup against a Rangers team that is scoring 2.9 goals a game over their last 10 games, but the Rangers played last night in a game that went to overtime and on to a shootout.

Centers

Blake Wheeler - WPG (DK: $6000, FD: $6400)

To be honest, I think his projected ownership is a little low. He's my top ranked C on the slate. It also wouldn't surprise me to see a bunch of 4-man stacks for WPG with Laine, Scheifele, Connor, and Wheeler.

Wingers

Blake Coleman -NJD (DK: $5400, FD: $4800)

I've been on Coleman all week. The results haven't been there, but the shot volume is there and he's priced right - especially if you're trying to fit someone like Laine in your lineup as well.

Defensemen

Zach Werenski - CLS (DK: $5700, FD: $6300)

Checks the boxes of what I look for in a D that I'm spending up on. 3+ shots, 23+ minutes, and PP1 time.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Andrew Copp: WPG - C (DK: $3500, FD: $3500)

Kevin Labanc: SJ - D (DK: $4400, FD: $4700)

David Savard: CLS - D (DK: $3400, FD: $3500)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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