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- LineStar® Hat Trick 02/13 | Giving Away My Secrets!
LineStar® Hat Trick 02/13 | Giving Away My Secrets!
Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick. With only 2 NBA games tonight and the All Star Break this weekend, I expect a lot of y'all to be migrating over to pucks this weekend. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that many of you will be new to NHL or haven't played since last year's All Star Break.
For today, I'm going to spend some time going over my settings that I use and why I use them, as well as what to look for.
Lineup Types
I really only consider 4 of the lineup types available. My favorites to use (in order):
Line Stack
Tournament
Ceiling
Stars and Scrubs
I'm going to give you a little insight into when and why I use each:
Line Stack: This is best (in my opinion) when doing MME (mass multi entry). Most heavy volume or experienced NHL DFS players rely heavily on line stacking. However, it can be more risky.
Tournament/High Ceiling: Less focused on stacking, but trying to get players that can score high. You have to be careful, as hockey is a high variance sport, which means that you can absolutely have some dud lineups.
Stars and Scrubs: This is usually my go-to when playing 1-3 lineups on a slate. It tries to fit in as many top-tier players as possible but will often put in some questionable low-salary players. Aim for cheap players that get 13+ minutes of ice time, have shot volume of 2+ SOG a game, and play on a power play unit or 1st or 2nd line.
Base Settings
Keep in mind - this is my starting point. I ALWAYS finesse what I get from the builder. In my experience, and this goes for almost every optimizer, you'll get 4 bad lineups for every good lineup. Please continue to read below for my thoughts.
PowerPlay Line: You can set this to 2, so that it will force players that are on a power play line, but I think there's typically good value at D with some players that aren't on a power play line. Perfect example of that is Ryan Graves from Colorado.
Offensive Max Line: I leave this at 2 for larger slates, but you can set it to 3 if you are going to go through your lineups. What I mean by this is I don't typically like to have more than 1 player from the 3rd line in my lineup in large slates like this. So if you have time to check and make sure you don't have more than one 3rd line player, keep this at 2.
Max Exposure: I let the builder run to see what I get, and then tweak accordingly. I lean towards a contrarian play style so if I get too much of a chalk player/team and I don't like that, I bump down their projections manually
Min Projected Points: If I find I'm getting bad players in too many lineups, I bump this up a little more, but I find that limiting it at 5 is a good starting point. On larger slates like this, I might move it as high as 8.
Variance Level: I start at 2, but if I'm not getting enough variety in my lineups, I move it up to 3.
PRO TIP: If you want to see how these different settings affect lineups, go back to a previous slate (like Tuesday) and try a few builds. I'd recommend changing only one setting at a time to see what you get as a result and adjust accordingly. For a baseline, you will typically need 200+ to place in a top 10 of a GPP.
If you're looking for more tips on getting up to speed quickly in NHL DFS, check out this article I wrote a while back: Ten Tips for the NHL Casuals
LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
So get involved and let's get some chatter going in LineStar Chat
Tonight's Targets
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/08ffcf08-bdcc-476d-b2dc-96c8df5c89fb/ba3647d9fd1cd7daf5e44695145d211c.png)
First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):
W and L: Wins and Losses
CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes
HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.
SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.
SOT: Percentage of shots on target .
Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.
SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes
GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.
ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.
I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.
Now let's dig into this slate.
Goaltenders
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8214ef0d-b552-42b7-b549-64fe25f3c8e6/728e85ff0eaccdc12bc8ed936f26d9f9.png)
MacKenzie Blackwood - NJD (DK: $7800, FD: $7500)
I feel that this will probably be the chalk play at G tonight, and I think I'm ok with that. My concern in playing goaltenders against Detroit is that he won't face very many shots. However, I think he's priced fairly for tonight considering the matchup and potential upside/downside.
Centers
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ea654699-b53d-4102-8162-0bc461c7b344/85c15190ae1338660795e982f4012387.png)
Nathan MacKinnon - COL (DK: $8400, FD: $8800)
MacKinnon has been a little quiet lately, but he gets a good matchup against Holtby, who I will argue is a little washed at this point in his career. Washington also gives up more fantasy points to C than another other team on the slate tonight.
Wingers
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/16506bbf-21bc-4f3c-8bfb-2f3cb43cb693/cedda595963745d7d0eaaa20dc86dca0.png)
Max Pacioretty -VGK (DK: $7200, FD: $7200)
I think there are some solid cheap options at W today, so you can get away with spending up on Patches tonight.
Defensemen
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8ebbbf2c-6bef-46c0-9831-a7a296edcc9b/7fd90e7356954b52dd272ea67e590523.png)
Colton Parayko - STL (DK: $4200, FD: $4700)
I think you can get away with spending down at D tonight. There are a lot of good options in the $4000-$5000 range that will allow you to make a viable lineup, especially if you're trying to fit MacKinnon and Pacioretty in your lineup.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Bottom of the Barrel
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
Derek Grant: ANH - C (DK: $3700, FD: $3300)
Kevin Fiala: MIN - D (DK: $4500, FD: $5300)
Mikhail Sergachev: TBL - D (DK: $4200, FD: $4400)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/31673854-3b2d-4723-9e1b-b042795313e1/e1a0da97fbf180e102ae445a5e5e9fea.png)
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
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