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- LineStar® Hat Trick 01/21 | Ten Tips for the NHL Casuals
LineStar® Hat Trick 01/21 | Ten Tips for the NHL Casuals
Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.
Tonight there's only 1 NBA game on the slate so we've got a bunch of people heading over from the NBA chat to join us in NHL tonight. Welcome!
If you're new, I'm going to try to break this down so you know what to look for when building lineups for tonight. If you scroll up a bit, there's a link to my strategy guide if you want to get a little more in-depth info and strategy. Otherwise, here are my top ten tips for playing NHL for the first time:
Projections don't matter. Say this out loud. Projections don't matter. A $3500 guy can outscore a $7000 guy. It happens. Much like MLB, there is no floor. Your $7000 guy could drop a 0 in your lineup. Please don't use "Top Projected" as your builder model. I prefer "Stars and Scrubs" or "LineStack."
You can usually ignore most 3rd line and almost all 4th line skaters. If they aren't on a power play unit (1st power play unit preferably), get 15+ minutes, or get 3+ shots on net, I don't want anything to do with them.
Focus on 1st power play unit players. Although teams have two power play units, some teams run the first unit much heavier than the second. In other words, a 1st power play unit may be on the ice for 90 seconds of the power play, and the second unit may only be out for 30 seconds.
For forwards, I generally look for skaters with 3+ shots on net, 16+ minutes of ice time, and time on one of the power play units.
For defensemen, I generally look for players with 3+ shots, 2+ blocks, 23+ minutes of ice time and get time on one of the power play units.
Stacking is something most seasoned NHL DFS players do. Many will do at least 3 players from one line and 3 players from another line, but you can also see 4-3 stacks, 3-3-2 stacks, and 3-naked stacks. Nothing wins every night. My best advice would be to not try to force stacks. If you get a 3-2-2 stack and like you're lineup, I'd go with that instead of trying to force a 3-3 stack.
Goalie is the highest variance position. If you're playing multiple lineups, I wouldn't lock anyone in. I typically don't play a goalie in more than 40% of my lineups. Your goalie will probably let in a goal (or two, or three). What I want most is a win and 30-35+ saves. Saves and a win can help make up for a goal or two that is allowed.
Nothing is truly "confirmed." There are no official lineups in NHL. Team warm-ups happen 30 minutes before the game starts. That's really when we know what goalie is starting and what player lines will be. If a player is scratched, that's when you'll know as well. While it's somewhat rare that there's scratches or line changes, you'll know right before the game starts.
Like every other DFS sport, scoring will vary by slate. Usually, 200+ scores will get you near the top or at the top of most GPPs on most nights. 170+ is usually a decent cashing score. I don't play cash games, but typically a 150+ is needed to cash comfortably most nights.
There are no "must plays" in NHL. Top ownership typically runs 20-30% for the highest owned player. Play who you like and hope for the best, remembering that what is supposed to happen usually don't.
What do you think? Anyone try anything similar? Any questions on the slate tonight? Hit me up in LineStar Chat
Tonight's Targets
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First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):
W and L: Wins and Losses
CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes
HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.
SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.
SOT: Percentage of shots on target .
Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.
SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes
GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.
ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.
I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.
Now let's dig into this slate.
Goaltenders
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Alexandar Georgiev - NYR (DK: $7400, FD: $7500)
I go by the belief that goalies won't win me a GPP, but they may cost me one. With that said, I typically live in the middle salary tier for goalies. This generally gets me one with someone upside, a decent matchup, and will allow me to spend up on skaters in my lineups.
Centers
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Mika Zibanejad - NYR (DK: $6900, FD: $7500)
Zibanejad is my top ranked center today and gets a decent matchup tonight against an Islanders team that is on a bit of a downswing, having allowed 3.6 goals a game over their last 5 games.
Wingers
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Dominik Kubalik - CHI (DK: $5300, FD: $5200)
I think Kubalik is a little underpriced tonight based on his recent performance. He's also facing a team that is allowing over 30 shots and 3 goals a game over their last 10 games.
Defensemen
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Kris Letang - PIT (DK: $6100, FD: $6800)
One of my favorite spots to spend up at is D. Tonight, there are some solid choices at the bottom salary tier that I think you can get away with paying up for Letang and pair him with another viable option at D. Letang is a favorite of mine tonight because he's a big part of the Pittsburgh offense. With multiple solid lines, it's easier for me to play Letang and hope he picks up an assist or two than try to decide if I want to play the first or second line for Pittsburgh.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Bottom of the Barrel
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
Chandler Stephenson: VGK - C (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.6K)
Jakub Voracek: PHI - W (DK: $4.1K, FD: $6.2K) DK
Martin Necas: CAR - W (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.7K) FD
Torey Krug: BOS - D (DK: $4.2K, FD: $5.6K) DK
Travis Sanheim: PHI - D (DK: $2.9K, FD: $3.9K) FD
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.
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Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
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