Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I want to talk about projections today and think about how much they matter in NHL DFS. To me, they don't. Think about it this way, NHL is a high variance sport. A player projected for 15 points could score 3 points or could score 30. That's a really wide range of outcomes. At the same time, most players on the slate won't meet their projection. Here are the numbers for the main slate on DraftKings on 12/31.

37% of the players met their projections. That can be a little discouraging if you're checking your lineups later in the slate when the final games are starting and you're hoping that your remaining player can push you to the promised land.

I've mentioned this before for MLB in chat and I'll say it again for NHL, you're playing a dangerous game if you're relying on projections for your lineups. NHL is a really difficult sport to project due to the wide range of outcomes for any given player. It goes along with the "what's supposed to happen usually don't" saying.

Now that we have that out of the way, projections are important in that we need them for the optimizer to build lineups for us (assuming we're not hand building - and if you're hand building, you should be ignoring projections entirely). This is why I emphasize the need to run multiple builds with the optimizer. I do this so that I can see what players I'm getting, what stacks I'm getting and decide if that makes sense for the slate.

Something to consider as well: There are a lot of players that just run optimizers and throw them onto DFS sites without properly vetting them. To me, this means that I should put more effort into tweaking my lineup because if the majority of players are getting Carolina stacks, I might want to go a different direction if I don't agree with that.

To give you an idea about how this all looks and works, I'm going to build 150 lineups on 12/31. One of the first things I check is my player exposures:

For me, this looks good with the exception of Nick Suzuki in 36% of my lineups. Since I'm running line stacks, I'm going to guess it's because he's paired with Domi and Lehkonen for the most part. If I don't want to run him that overweight on that line, I have two general options:

• Lower projections for those three players

• Manually delete lineups with them that I don't like

For me, deleting is the preferred option. Changing projections can do some funky things. You might get less of a player, but then you might get more of an equally questionable player or stack. This is why I also consider what stacks I'm getting and how much of them I'm getting:

Again, I want to take a look at how all of this looks from a high level. I might feel that I'm getting too much of FLA or STL based on what I think they'll do that night. Which is why I also take a look at the lineups I'm getting.

To me, this is one of the most important parts of lineup building, to look at the full lineups that the optimizer has produced. Remember, the optimizer isn't a crystal ball. It's simply trying to put the best projected based on the settings and restrictions given. Don't feel married to any of the players in a lineup. For example, I might not like Brady Skjei in that lineup or Jake Allen. If you've done the research to believe there is a better play or a play that offers more upside, go with it.

Let me know what you think of all this and if you find it useful. Also, any questions on the slate tonight? Hit me up in LineStar Chat

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

• SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

• ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Jacob Markstrom - VAN (DK: $8100, FD: $7800)

*At the time of this writing, Markstrom is not confirmed.

Kind of a dicy matchup, but goalies that have faced Chicago have done well over the last 5 games. Markstrom should see at least 30 shots and if Vancouver takes a lead, it's reasonable to expect that he could see 35+. Pretty good upside if he can keep the puck out of the net.

Centers

Mika Zibanejad- NYR (DK: $6900, FD: $7800)

For me, center is the spot to spend up on tonight, but I don't think you need to go all the way to the top. Zibanejad is my favorite option. He's got incredible shot volume and has a pretty good matchup against a Calgary team that is allowing 3.1 goals a game over their last 10.

Wingers

Kyle Connor - WPG (DK: $6400, FD: $6300)

Connor is coming off a 3-goal game, but gets a decent matchup against a Toronto team that is allowing 2.9 goals a game over their last 10. He is my top-ranked winger for tonight and has great shot volume including 3.4 high danger shot attempts a game over his last 5 games.

Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo - STL (DK: $5900, FD: $6300)

I've got Petry below, but I need someone to go with him. For me, I think Pietrangelo is that dude tonight. Colorado is in a pretty nasty downswing so I'm going to continue to pick players against them.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Christian Dvorak: ARI - C (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.1K)

Tyler Ennis: OTT - W (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.2K)

Jeff Petry: MON - D (DK: $4.2K, FD: $5.1K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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